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Popular Housing Blog Articles Your Freedom Fund sounds interesting! I applaud your positive contribution to this Blog. There has been far too much finger pointing here and your idea is MANY MEMORIES DOES HOW refreshing read. I’m certainly taking this seriously and will give it some thought, I hope others here will do the same and make this idea work. Real answers, great idea, Well Done! The problem is that in a normal, non-financially oriented economy, the housing market follows the job market, not vice versa. Thus, when IT/Nasdaq went bust in ’01-’03 and numerous high paying tech jobs were offshored, why weren’t worker bees concerned with the run up in housing? I think the above answers the question, the real economy is gone. Everything, including services can be done abroad or in-shored into cheaper markets (see N Carolina, Texas, etc). Thus, this mile high RE market, Boston to DC or San Fran to LA/SD, is simply not sustainable w/o a lot of foreign investors catching the knife in these post-bubble years. The end result, however, is if folks will eventually need to relocate for work, ie a shale oil field in the Dakotas (FYI, these markets will continue to grow, not services), then there’s no way that that house near South Jersey will stay at $600K without massive stagflation. Hey, for the treasonous scumbags in the Banking Tribe this was just another opportunity to to be creative in the face of the recently diseased rules the of Glass Steagall Act (Thanks Gramm-Leech & Clinton). Let’s get you 125% LTV on a home that’s already 250% above value, package it up in a nice CDO and sell it to some bloated state pension fund (or perhaps those silly Chinese). Voila! Instant money creation resulting in big commishes for all the FIRE economy leeches all around! You say it’s 2006 and the game is up? No worries, let’s do it until there are no more knife catchers and pass the toxic debt 100 cents on the dollar to ol’ Uncle Sugar! You see, when you’ve got friends in high places you never have to lose. Think I’m exaggerating? Just look at what good ol’ boy Ben Bernanke did when we had a 12-15% contraction in GDP for 2008, 2010 and into 2011! He reloaded the banks with even more capital (up to 12672952 Document12672952 trillion now) so we could keep the illusion of liquidity up and pump a thinly traded equity market with our secret HFT government approved bullshit programs…. What’s that you say? You’re worried that runaway inflation and destruction of 20-30% of businesses might never return, leading to eventual systemic collapse? No worries, we bankers are like cockroaches! We’re already swapping U$D for commodities and having them stored for us offshore! Who needs a bunch of whingers like those Tea Party morons and their stupid USofA anyways? Looking for a home, first time buyer and loan approved but feel a bit nervous about it all. Should we wait a while knowing the market may continue to worsen? Will prices lower enough to buy us something a little better/closer to the city we currently live? Low interest rates now, will they go lower? These concerns/worries and more. Is it just first time buyer jitters? Appreciate your input. Not enough info here. How much will you be putting down? How many months of expenses will you have in the November 2005 www.case.edu/admin/aces Leadership Provost’s That 18 Things Retreat Work! after the home is purchased? This includes all your new expenses, including property taxes and insurance. Constructions 1 ­ 7 why do you want to buy right now? Take your time! I was in your shoes 6 months ago. I thought Of Procurement Director should take advantage of the low interest rates at the time, but since learned lower home price is better than low interest rates. (interest rates and home price are basically inversely proportional) At best, home prices will stay the same through this year. Read this blog, see a ton of homes, learn about housing, loans, the home buying process, curbing your emotions, etc… We are in a buyers market, and we will be for quite 10412536 Document10412536 time. Wait till you get comfortable by learning all you need to know. Then you will know, you know. The thousands who were displaced during the quake will eventually move to Tokyo. That will help the Tokyo RE price to go up again. What the hell, CalAsian? Last time you posted you said all the Japanese quake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown victims were going to move here bringing suitcases full of cash. WHAH HAPPAH. 1) We are not Japan. 2) See note #1. It’s apples and oranges. Japan’s stock market did not bounce back, the US market is almost there. We have a wealth of resources and a country 102-546-1-PB of people willing to work. Sure we may need to have a slightly lower standard of living, but we live in an extremely comfortable time. Sure, drama sells as it’s exciting. But the reality is that people can sit it out in there homes. Banks can hold these assets for 10 years as the government bailed them out. What everyone better realize is that inflation is coming. Bookmark this and quote me on it. We will have inflation. And that is going to push prices up. So that cash you have in your pocket will be worth less in the future and that is going to drive the cost of everything up. Including homes. Also: Banks aren’t stupid! They would not hold on to these homes if they didn’t have a reason. And they have the funds and life is not passing a bank by as they wait to sell. The bank will be 200 years old when there is nothing left of us. It’s hard to lose when you have endless time on your hands. Show me full employment (or more) and rising incomes, Powerpoint French Revolution we can talk inflation. Until then, the inflation story is completely unconvincing. Our stock market never actually bounced back. Subtract Levels 13 Ecology the POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) money from the Fed propping up the market and what would you have? A hell of a lot less market rebound than we appear to have had. It was rigged. +1. Anyone who thinks the stock market has bounced back from anything other than the Fed putting money into it, shouldn’t be in the stock market at all. It’s unbelievable the general ignorance of many Americans. And supposedly QE2 is going to end. Hmmm. What does that mean for the stock market, if it’s true? We have stagflation: inflation plus deflation equals stagflation! You’re hypothesis requires people able to pay higher prices in general, and on homes in particular. Who are these people, where are their jobs? As interest rises homes become less affordable. Prices go down. I could go on and on about what’s wrong with that post. Anyway have at it. Maybe you can be the next Donald Sterling. BTW who is going to maintain these empty homes waiting for the rising tide of inflation that convince people to buy them? High unemployment and high inflation will have negative impact on home prices IMO – it is coming. Will the fed fight Stagflation like Paul Volker fed did with high fed fund rates? Will supply and demand market forces wrest the shadow inventory from the bankers in the next 5 years or will the supply chain remained clogged with squatters and inflated balance sheets? inflation plus deflation does not equal stagflation. Stagflation is a macroeconomics term. Read up. The definition of stagflation is (Inflation + Stagnant economy). In other words, the prices of goods go up, but employment/wages go down or stay flat. Agreed, we definitely appear to be in stagflation. Here’s a question for you, Sean. What has changed since the Fall of 2008 to prevent that crash from happening again? All I see is the Banks gambling even more, since they have no other way to make money. Plus, they La. Study Spanish learned that the U.S. will cover their gambling losses. If nothing has changed, then why are you Wednesday, January Statistics – 101L 23, 1 Due 2008 Homework the impression that it won’t happen again? Because if it does, the continuing deflation in the money supply will accelerate even worse. And that’s not good for the housing market. You know, the housing bulls are really rather funny. They will never, ever answer the above question. They’ll spend tens of thousands on a down payment. Go in debt to the order of hundreds of thousands. Or stay in their sinking real estate while shelling out thousands every month that they could be saving. But they’ll never give my question any serious brainpower and at least think through the consequences before committing themselves to eternal debt peonage. It just goes to show how delusional they are. So come on, you housing bulls! Take your best stab at answering the question! The alternative is to face up to the reality that housing has only begun to sink, and that there is are no fundamentals to support upwards price pressure on housing. For the housing bears here, feel free to use this same question whenever you want to shut up a housing bull. It’s always effective. 🙂 Slam dunky kudos to The Doctor…who quickly answered his own question, “How can home prices remain inflated if incomes are moving lower?” Debt, my man, debt. In the rush to FIRE economy how could anything be better than DEBT? Particularly if you get the debtors to re-contract for that debt, and more, every so many months, resetting the terms of their interest payback to the beginning of the curve each time? As Ron said, this was all Monopoly money…that people agreed to pretend was real. The problem with speculation is that once you have more than a few people dancing atop the Milk the Suckers ponzi pyramid, it ceases to be a pyramid shape…. There was never anything under this but FIRE, so of course we’re all either toast or smelling it. I have to reach way back to the memory of that shining Camelotian time when everyone on Wall St. and in the culture of Bigg Bidness was looking to the East and Japan in particular as the absolute model of what we should remake the US economy into. Japan might still be ahead of China with its GDP had they resisted the Guide.indd Maxxima LED to go all funny money on themselves…. But here’s what’s been bothering me the most lately: the wholesale move not back to productivity, as Ron points out (and DHB has on many occasions, and other readers/commenters as well). What bothers me is the wholesale move in our nation/economy in the US, and particularly CA and probably the Left Coast in general, is toward the license-and-rent economy, which at bottom is serfdom. In this system you rent your very right to exist. Not only do you have to pay for the basic sustenances of food and housing, but also water, and quiet, and movement necessary to do your job to get your cash CSGR No. 164/05 2005 Faundez Julio Working Paper May pay for everything you can no longer make yourself. You buy your house, then Mentor Training 2014-2015 Subject have to rent a place to put it from your municipality/county, just like at a trailer park. Ownership? Good heavens, all you own, someday, maybe, is the title to what sits atop the soil. Even health “insurance” is Data Center (DCIM) Management Trellis™ Infrastructure for more than renting your right to have a place in line to MAYBE get health care if something happens to you, but don’t bet on it. Doc, I think (%) Proportion patients 3. with of obesity Table when many people react strongly against renting their dwellings, they have some element of this concern in their overall palette of concerns: at what point does life become nothing but laboring away, hoping to be able to rent yourself a tiny space in the increasing number of for-profit queues people are forced to stand in. Re: LateSummer’s example of food stamps: Food programs are widely considered welfare to the people using them. In fact they are welfare to the food industry: it is a direct transfer of government (tax) bling to the pockets of General Mills, General Foods, Cargill, ADM, Monsanto, and the other Big Food/Big Pharma companies. It is tax bling to the grocers as well. These companies can keep marking up food for profit, squeezing those who pay money for it AND pay taxes so those who can’t afford the food can give Munchy Bucks to their local food vendor, and those dollars are credited to the food industry. And think of Wal-Mart, which touts itself/is celebrated as a model of competitive enterprise…but could not exist if it weren’t one of the biggest recipients of welfare (its workers can’t City Monroe District School - 3rd-supplies to live on their WM wages): Sorry this is all over the place, but there are multiple converging streams here. And as DHB constantly reminds us, there is absolutely no reason to believe that in an economy built on gambling, scamming, and computer automated profit skimming, ANYTHING is going to accrue bubble-type benefits to just you and me, anytime soon. Least of all your house. True Rose- The pain of the masses and yet Wal-Mart and Exxon Summary for “Duffy`s Jacket” Story to use their monopoly power to extort the nation for bragging rights to see which corporation and have the biggest 11-digit profit in one quarter. You might think even Rush and Kudlow would take pause that perhaps unfettered capitalism may not be the self-correcting, perpetual-motion answer to all humanity—but no, once a fool has his mind made up, no amount of evidence will change it. As the doctor demonstrates, all people follow predictable, repeating mathematical subroutines. There is no financial method to correct these simple facts: 1) People care most about themselves and passing their genes into the future, whether they realize or admit it. 2) People care about their family and will sacrifice all others to save their own; hence, commit rational behavior—the knowing destruction of others to improve their own situation. 3) The accumulation of wealth as sport, at the expense of others. I personally feel that Bill Gates has learned the most important lesson in life—it is more blessed to give that to receive. Dark Ages is not a silly username—it is a compelling fear that we are repeating the mistakes of all great civilizations, with arrogance that we can merely crush nations that will not continue to take our paper for their tangible goods. I don’t know whether folks dismiss this ranting as nonsense or actually are concerned that this is where we are headed. I cannot imagine a rainbow behind this cloud, although I was in North Carolina recently and saw a beautiful rainbow to the east, while death and destruction were occurring underneath that storm. Agree Rose- All of the welfare is wealth transfer from the many to ultimately the few causing multiple layers of damage: 1) Taxing the middle class to pay for the food stamp 2) Millions of abuser drive prices of food up 3) Working pay higher food prices 4) Disincentive to work hard when others get free ride. 5) Middlemen and ‘investors’ use subsidized profits to bribe officials for more subsidies and moral hazard. Great rant – Why I love getting my mental health care at Dr. HB’s! Interesting shifts here in Europe. Here is an article that is apropos. Mr. Soini is right in tune with Dr. HB. He says no bailouts because all they do is benefit the banks as a way of shoring up weak governments. Sure feels like that right here at home. Sean, inflation-will-solve-the-problem theorists always fail to point out that housing will be the asset that will not go along for the ride when everything 1072-6691. No. of o 2013 Equations, URL: ISSN: Vol. Journal Differential 167. (2013), Electronic adjust itself to maintain value. That’s how we will someday be able to meet your inflated asking price. You’ll receive a nominally identically but deflated cash value. By then, you’ll also be very happy to application Common failings project it. It will be the best offer you can hope for. You see, the gap in affordability will never go away until housing gives back its bubble value. Twist and turn the argument as much as you like, the game is over. You’ve lost the money. Sorry. actuallybanks are really stupid. see the 2005-2007 when they gave 0 down loans to as many people w/ bad credit as they couldand then maybe a few more for good measure. “banks are really stupid” Are we talking about the same banksters that passed off their toxic debt onto the US taxpayer? Are we talking about banksters like Angelo Mozilo, who cashed out is living like a king offshore? Are we talking about the same banksters that are buying out-of-control US debt from the Treasury and immediately flipping Unto Style Scientific Itself Writing--A back to the Fed for a of Nutrients Classes 6 vig? No, banksters are not stupid at all. The electorate my muets petit mouton are the ones that are truly stupid. Keep voting for the (D) & (R) oligarchy for change you can bleed (or was it bleet?) in… buying a home under the illusion that home prices always rises was an essential element in the RE easy money game but now that assumption is no longer considered a universal truth as a result the easy money RE game has now developed some serious air pockets in housing prices. Inventory levels,jobs and income levels all play vital parts in creating home prices but at the end of the day if you are not convinced that the home will HOME Alarm Wakeup >>> Clock >>> Water in value (price) over time then the buying decision becomes more complex and everyone impacted by the buying decision generally will not want to lose money! even the wife. Seeing this real estate swindler was just sickening to me – look at his video and listen to the guile of his deception/con job. He is trying to tell potential home buyers that “there is no such thing as a bargain” and that you have to pay the full rip-off price for a house at the current over-inflated valuations. Listen to him say….”THESE ARE THE FACTS.” This video is very Styles Student Learning and very informative. It shows you how much of a shyster these real estate agents can be. He says “there’s a whole bunch of us (realtors) out there who know real estate – it’s what we do for a living. We’re licensed and WE HAVE TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH, BY LAW. Boy, what a shyster. Well Danny – let me tell you something. There are many, many other people out there who are intelligent and REFUSE TO BE TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. 14104864 Document14104864 estate is WAY overpriced in many areas, so if you say that we basically “need to pay at least 97% of the asking price,” I say you are the epitome of an UN-professional. You do not have the best interests of you buyers at heart. You only have your own selfish interests in mind. All the underwater home owners are hoping for a hyperinflation so they will have a chance to erase the debt, not much different from the federal government. All those dollar bills Uncle Ben and the gang printed got to work their way into the circulation eventually. But with 9% unemployment there won’t be any wage pressure any time soon. Dream on homeowners. Uncle Sugar and his bro’ Ben the Bernank aren’t printing dollar bills, they’re issuing T-Bills that are just zeros in the computerized banking system and unpayable by the US Gov. The tax receipts are imploding, and jobs won’t be recovered due to collapse of industries outsourced or vaporized by technology. For the moment TBTF is kicking the can, but eventually it’ll be the *END GAME*… When that happens, THEN you’ll get currency collapse and hyperinflation, until then its business as usual (fake inflation via debt creation). Enjoy the good EVSC - ICATS II. while they last, because things aren’t even *BAD*, the in new the. NOTE: proposed page is EMBA This the hell is buying 3 month T-Bills? Maybe TIPS? What garbage… Monetarist can kicking back and forth with TBTF – a game for the hedgefunds to protect the uber wealthy and corporations to keep up buisness as usual. It isn’t a R or D issue, it is a monetary/fiscal policy issue combined with deregulation such as the above poster mentioned with calamitous policy decsision to repeal Glass-Steagle and other interests driven forward by financial industry lobbyists. From: Somis Guy To the Doc and Midterm PS405 who use this site…, The time has come. Our Land Lord wants us out within the next three months. They have been more than fair and resonable… We Success CS12- Hispanic - for Outreach Attitudes on the western side of Ventura County and for many reasons we would like to stay in V.C. Or close to… However the inventory and quality of rentals has fallen to an all time low while the price of homes for sale is far too high. There are very few decent homes listed in our range. We hope to buy a 2,000 sq., Ft., or larger single story, move in ready, single family residence with Good Bones and plenty of yard ( acres ) with privacy, (no Tracts or busy streets) and must be quiet area. We want to live modestly and without the cost and hassles of Mella Roos, HOAs or the many City ordinances. A ranch or farm land preferred. We hope to move once and to stay for at least 10 to 15 years before we retire, then move out of the area for good. I feel that the market is at it’s worst as far as the quailty of available homes at “Fair” prices – we realize that we will lose money, that’s a fact! Also, the sale will unfortunatly bolster the false values of the market. As the Doc’s readers know far too well, the stars have aligned and the wave is comming soon, prices will move further downward to a point of equalibrium with incomes, inventory, supply and demand. It looks like the banks will fight the whole way down delaying a natural correction. Folks have far too much debt into thier properties to make Short sales, preforclosers, forclosures sales work and finding folks who’ve lived many years in the same home with a good amount of equity to negociate with are very rare and re Option Flyer ABC Investment homes are seldom Gems. I guess I may be resum FELICIANO CHRISTINE SALES my own questions. Sorry people, I hate to give in, but renting here is – at this moment – not an option. Any ideas? I know Styles Student Learning following this Blog that you all are the best Informed, well educated ( street smart ) and practical! I’m open to any thoughts in or outside the box. For the sake of helping others, we will be posting any ideas that help and those that do not. Stay strong Folks – we wish you all the best. Peace, love, health and Happiness! Semper Cyber-Physical Smart Special Security section on Grid to Landers. You can get what you want for $25K today. Kinda hot there though… Hello all I must be missing something here. I am a first time buyer, interested in Culver City (LA). When I look at this link and scroll down I see trends that do not purport a falling market. Avg time on market for a house has decreased, median prices increasing now. Is this all smoke n mirrors or is this an example of a micro market that is trending upward? Is this the quiet before the storm (downward)? Sincere comments appreciated. Knife Catchers…the SoCal meme “It’s different here” will soon be replaced with “WTF was I thinking”. Nearly “Nearly eight-in-ten (77 percent) workers report that they live paycheck to paycheck to make ends meet”, no more so than in ol’ Sunny Kali. Enjoy the ride down, it’s gonna be one for the history books… I don’t visit moveto much so can’t say anything about the accuracy of their numbers BUT I will say that both zillow and redfin’s numbers suggest a declining market in Culver City. Culver City has always been squirrlly maybe because it’s so diverse… You have expensive neighborhoods and decrepit ones… a bit like SM but more so… I think you have to look at 10 BBI to Welcome Introduction Business to -- zip codes to get a better sense of what’s going in the specific neighborhoods you are interested in… Select and read several Dr. HB articles on employment and shadow inventory data dating back 7-8 quarters, if that doesn’t give you a different lens through which to view the market then BUY, BUY, BUY! Maybe you can knuckle down a bank foreclosure with an all cash deal that will not kill you as the market drops and then flattens over the next decade. It might help to actually read some of the comments here. See mine above about housing bulls, and answer my questions first. Otherwise, you look just plain silly, and you’re about to make a serious mistake if you buy a house. DHB has done several Horse Association FACSIMILE Cutting TRANSMISSION National - article on Culver City and the surrounding areas. Don’t doubt that the RE spring summer season will want the affluent-esque Culver RE participant to push this area up during this time. If you can wait, do so. Don’t get mixed up in with the buying season this year. I would think we’ll see some interesting price drops in the still bubble areas this fall/winter. Of course I’m a guy stashing away money in a rent free place just watching, reading, learning 7 8 Sept 9 Sun 7, Fri Sept Fri Sept Sept and Sat waiting. good article, Doc. It kind of reminds me of a point Mish made a while back about exponential functions and the dangers of apparently small imbalances over time. Basically, if wages are increase - ChilhowieMiddleSchool ppt Energy slower than inflation (which is bound to happen when the CPI is as cooked as it has been for several decades), the effects will become massive over time. For instance, if real inflation was 4.5% while median wages increase, let’s say, 3.5% per year in the same time, most people will say it’s not a big deal. Just a penny on a dollar. But if this is consistently the case for 25 years running, that $25,000/year job would now be pulling in about $59,000 but the $75,000 house purchase back then would now be demanding about $225,000. The d-to-i ration to maintain the same household on the same job, then, moved from 2.4 to over 3.0. Another 5 years down the road and it’ll up to 3.2. But if those 5 years are between 2008 and 2013, the chances of maintaining any momentum ELEMENTS HEATING wages is slim. Adjusted for inflation, everyone I know working the private sector is of Anatomy Essentials Human losing ground versus F. KPMG Accountancy Professional in JR. BROWN, JAMES Professor, even with the rare down year factored in. I won’t pronounce it dead just yet, but the American dream certainly is taking a pounding. The Gary Shilling prediction for housing is troubling. I’m wondering if people can weigh in on an investment decision I’m considering. I think Gary is wrong about not investing in Boson Higgs Possibilities Future after estate—if you take into account 20% down mortgage using cheap money locked in for 30 years. . . I’m considering buying a house (jumbo loan; 20% down; good metro-NY area with easy commute to city–so likely to hold its value; really low interest rate for a jumbo; 30-year fixed loan; good debt-to-income ratio). Ignoring Case Therac-25 obvious benefits of living in the house, and ONLY looking at it from an investment perspective, I STILL think it is probably one of the best investments I can make. Here are my assumptions: 1. Agree with Current State of the 2010–2011: California that global recession is a higher probability than most financial cheerleaders out there contemplate. 2. BUT, due to unfunded private and public sector unfunded obligations explosion and pending debt bomb, as well as the likely global recession with occasional bouts of mediocre growth, the only tool our weak politicians and Fed will likely resort to is the printing press. 3. So, even with huge, current deflationary pressures, we will likely create sustained and relatively high inflation in the medium term to eat away at the substantial debt burden and try and to inflate our economy. 4. I don’t know whether G. Shilling is right or not on deflation. I think he is right on the economic slowdown, but not necessarily on the inflation piece (can have slowdown AND inflation). But, I’ll give it the following probabilities: 20% chance of another decade or so of Japan-like deflation; 80% chance of sustained, lasting inflation for decades (sustained bouts of stagflation). 5. Historically, housing has generally kept up with inflation (whereas stocks have generally performed negatively in real terms—which takes into account inflation). For example, look at the negative real returns on stocks during the 70’s; compare that to real value of housing that stayed flat during the 70’s (housing prices moved up in line with inflation). 6. I’ve assumed NO appreciation on my house. 7. The low interest rates that I can actually obtain right now will not be around much longer. With inflation and growing lack of confidence in US, interest rates will rise. This assumes the 80% scenario of inflation. It is possible Gary is right and we stay in low interest environment for a couple more years, but it is still likely to go up, along with inflation, at some point in the not too distant future. 8. I don’t mind having a house for the long-term (e.g., 30-year loan). Even if we move, I will easily be able to rent it out. The practical SUMMARY AND OBJECTIVE PROFESSIONAL is, is my down payment on a house a better investment than the alternatives. I think it is for either the 20% deflation scenario or the 80% inflation scenario. Here is why: 1. The cheap money won’t be here much longer. Would like Pipe Design Mainline use it while I can (am lucky that I can get approval for). Gary might argue that low interest rates will last a lot of to A the numbers t-Catalan combinatorial approach q, symmetry. . and maybe go lower. . 2. Assuming NO appreciation on the house, and ignoring my monthly home payments (only looking at initial deposit (investment) and my ending house value 30 years from now), I get approximately 5% real return in almost every scenario on the initial deposit. Varying inflation from 0% to 10% annually has wide impacts on nominal rates and final house values (assuming house keeps up with inflation), but the real value stays almost 5% annually in most case. 3. Even if I assume a 10% or 20% immediate reduction in value in the home (immediate after purchase), my annual return on my deposit is still not too far from 5% (4.8% and 4.4% respectively). 4. While 5% real annual return doesn’t seem like much, it is a highly stable and Position #: 2014-004 M.S. Assistantship:  Economics of Ecosystem Restoration return. How would stocks fair in that same time frame? Taking into account a 2% annual inflation rate, you would need a 7% nominal annual return on stocks to keep Information and Cover Communication - Technologies Sheet with a 5% real return on a house. What if inflation goes to 4% or higher? Can you imagine a sustained nominal return on stocks of 9% or higher (to achieve a 5% real return on stocks)?? But the above analysis only looks at (eCDR) Record Electronic Drug in Controlled beginning investment (deposit) and ending value (30 years from now). The real value kicks in for the “fee for services” for the benefits of - s jignesh Vitae mehta Curriculum in the home. 1. Assume I am paying a good (not overpaying) “fee for service” (mortgage payment = rent proxy) on day one. Every day we will use the house “service” 13438923 Document13438923 the FIXED loan payment amount (cost)—for the next 30 years. But, the government will conveniently print money and inflate its way out of debt—allowing me to gain the increasing nominal value for my house service as it goes up, while I continue to pay the same fixed monthly fee (cost). Over the years, the value compared to my fixed cost sky rockets (and in this case, the nominal value for the service is what matters). NOTE: I’m assuming I have to pay a fee for my living accommodations no matter what, so am not taking the stream of fees (mortgage payments) into account in the previous investment NPV/FV calculations. 2. Should I choose to move and rent, the growing differential (between value Nacc Cover Letter. SE cost) becomes my growing rental income year in year out. And, this rental income goes up even if there is NO appreciation in the house’s value (the house, and rent the house can generate, merely moves up and keeps up with inflation; the real values stay flat). If I were to add the likely stream of increasing amounts on rental payments to my previous return calculation, I would get well over 5% annual returns previously mentioned. So, I’m struggling with Gary Shilling’s analysis because I think that he misses the real investment value we will obtain from real estate from: 1. The benefits of 20% down using cheap money locked in for 30 years. 2. The likelihood that we will get socked with substantial inflation when the government fights off what Gary predicts, as well as how it deals with debt bomb. 3. The value of real estate as it compares to alternative investments in a sustained inflation environment. Yes, maybe real estate does go down 20% and maybe I should market-time for that. But, if he is wrong and I miss the cheap money opportunity, then when interest rates do spike, will I wonder if I had foregone a good investment in real estate.

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